To reduce CO2 emissions, we need to use other energy sources. Natural gas is often presented as an asset for making the transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy. However, methodologists at Radboud University have shown that the advantages and disadvantages of natural gas are insufficiently highlighted by the static cost-benefit considerations that dominate the current discussion. Limiting global warming to well below two degrees by the end of this century, with the aim of staying below one-and-a half-degrees, were the ambitious goals set at the 2015 Paris climate conference. One way to achieve this is to pursue more sustainable electricity production. Fossil fuels contribute to climate change, but solar and wind energy by themselves cannot yet provide all our energy needs. Natural gas therefore appears to be the main transition fuel: it produces fewer emissions than coal and can support solar and wind energy. “The direct effects of investing in natural gas are usually positive”, says Vincent de Gooyert, assistant professor of Research Methodology. “These positive effects also emerge from the cost-benefit considerations of policymakers. But those analyses are too static; they fail to account for many important side effects.” Divestments De Gooyert did take this dynamic into account in the paper he co-authored with PhD candidate Cem Gürsan. “The idea is that solar and wind energy technologies can mature, while we continue to generate electricity from natural gas. Don't get me wrong, we need natural gas, but investing now in natural gas infrastructure with power stations and pipelines will make natural gas investments cheaper in the future.” This has a lock-in effect: investing in natural gas now will make it even more attractive to continue investing in the future. In addition, there is a crowd-out effect: funding that is spent on natural gas is no longer available for the development of renewable energy. “That technology will then develop relatively more slowly, which means that we will remain dependent on fossil technologies for longer.” This analysis shows that the technologies are not independent, but are related to each other. For example, the USA has invested heavily in shale gas in recent years. As a result, coal has become cheaper, which led to increased use of coal in other countries. “You shouldn't see fossil fuels, natural gas and renewable energy as simply three competing technologies. They both hinder each other and help each other.” This is something that policymakers must take into account, for example in large countries such as China and India, which are now faced with the option of investing in natural gas. “Investments in solar and wind energy have been going on for some time in the Netherlands. Coal-fired power stations are being phased out here, even though some power stations have been operational for only a few years. This shows that divestment is actually becoming more likely.” Towards maturity To prevent this, Gürsan and De Gooyert have made the following recommendations for policymakers: “Draw up a clear roadmap. Set limits on natural gas power stations, determine until when you are going to invest in them and link those expenditures to investments in renewable energy so that the technology does not get overwhelmed.” And this does not only apply to natural gas. “We see all kinds of intermediate steps on the path to more sustainable alternatives such as carbon capture and storage, or hybrids as an intermediate step towards electric cars,” says De Gooyert. The details differ per sector, but there as well the various technologies are related to each other: they can both help and hinder each other. “We need to be aware of this, because a policy blunder now can mean that we miss the opportunity to achieve a climate-neutral world.” You have a part to playOur society is facing major challenges. Radboud University wants to contribute to a healthy, free world with equal chances for everyone. With ‘Je bent nodig’ (You have a part to play), Radboud University aims to reach people who want to contribute to that goal. At Jebentnodig.nl you’ll find more articles. Do you want to be kept updated of our articles? Register at Radboud Recharge. Image: Total Design.